There was an error in this gadget

Monday, February 16, 2009

Close Outs

How many times have you seen a jump shooter get fouled this year? It seems like this year more than any other year that shooters are getting fouled on shots. They all seem to be legit fouls too. They aren't the Reggie Miller leg kick fouls. The fouls are body checks half the time. The cardinal sin of basketball is fouling a jump shooter.

First reason not to foul a shooter is that most of the time you are fouling a shooter that is going to make the '3' about 35% of the time on average. So on average every time that shooter takes a '3' he can expect to get 1 point of expected value. Now, you foul that same shooter and let's say he is a 75% free-throw shooter. He gets 3 free-throws and on average he will make 2 of them. You are literally giving the other team 1 point in expected value. Those points add up especially if you are the less talented team.

The other reason is because of the odds of actually blocking the shot itself. A player can probably count how many times they have blocked a jump shot on one hand. The chance of blocking the shot is very slim, but the chance of getting a foul on the attempt is very high.

Simply put the risk is not high enough or frequent enough for the reward of blocking a shooter. So just stay down and make the shooter hit a tough shot.